Wednesday, March 12, 2014
To: Friends & Supporters
From: Gary L. Bauer
A Jolly Victory
Last night Republican David Jolly won an upset victory in a special election for Florida’s 13th Congressional District.
The 13th District is a swing seat, and Democrats had several advantages in this race. Barack Obama carried the district twice. The Democratic nominee, Alex Sink, had 100% name identification. A former statewide officeholder, Sink was the Democratic nominee for governor in 2010. In that race, Sink carried the 13th District.
Democrats quickly united behind Sink, while Jolly had a tough primary fight. According to campaign reports, Sink had a 5-to-1 cash advantage in the final weeks of the campaign. Sink was the more attractive candidate, whereas Jolly had been a Washington lobbyist. That label was used against him relentlessly in negative ads.
Sink led in the polls, and most analysts expected her to win. In fact, a week ago Republican operatives were already spinning Jolly’s expected loss, grumbling to the media about what a bad candidate he was and how poorly his campaign was being run.
The special election had been described in the media as a “must win” for Democrats. Not only was it a winnable seat, but the major issue of the contest was Obamacare. Sink defended it, while Jolly attacked it.
Last night Jolly, the “deeply flawed candidate with a nightmare background,” won 49% to 47%. (A libertarian candidate received 5%.)
An Obama Effect?
Barack Obama has fallen to a record low in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. Just 41% of Americans approve of his job performance. Other findings in the poll may provide some explanation for Sink’s unexpected loss last night:
- 47% of registered voters said they were more likely to vote for a candidate who favored repealing Obamacare, while just 32% were less likely to vote for such a candidate.
- By a nine-point margin, more voters said they will vote for Congress this November “to send a signal of opposition to Obama” than one of support for Obama.
- 48% said they were less likely to support a candidate identified as a “strong supporter of the Obama Administration,” while just 26% were more likely to support such a candidate.
- 42% of voters were less likely to support a candidate Obama endorsed, while only 22% were more likely to vote for a candidate he endorsed.The Issue DivideWhile the poll results indicate that Democrats may be trouble, Republicans need to be careful too. On a series of pocketbook issues, the GOP is treading on thin ice. For example:
- 67% of voters said they were more likely to support a candidate who is “committed to bringing federal dollars and projects to the local area.” Only 9% were less likely to support such a candidate.
- 58% of voters were more likely to support a candidate who favors raising the minimum wage to $10.10. Only 29% were less likely to vote for such a candidate.
- The GOP leadership has pushed immigration reform, potentially resulting in some quasi-amnesty for illegal immigrants. But voters are six points less likely to vote for a candidate who favors a so-called “pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.”
- 69% of voters were less likely to support a candidate who favors reductions in Social Security and Medicare to address the budget deficit.And while many Beltway consultants and talking heads would like to see values issues disappear entirely from the public discourse, consider these results: Despite all the hype about changing attitudes, support for same-sex marriage was a loser among voters, and “a major emphasis on more conservative social and religious values” was a 13-point net winner.Power Grid “Inherently Vulnerable”Every day Americans turn on their lights, use their microwaves, work at their computers and talk or text to friends and family on their smart phones. Electricity makes it all possible. We take it for granted that when we get up each morning, the lights will work and life will go on much as it did the day before.
But what if it didn’t? What if a terrorist attack took out the electrical grid and millions of Americans were suddenly plunged into darkness, unable to communicate, eat or access money at the ATM?
That disturbing scenario may be more of a possibility than we would care to imagine.
We recently told you about the 2013 attack on a power substation in California. Now the New Jersey State Police are confirming that there have been at least eight reports of possible sabotage at power facilities in the Garden State from October 2013 until January of this year. A report commissioned by the New Jersey Regional Operations Intelligence Center warns, “The electrical grid is inherently vulnerable.”
Similar incidents of potential sabotage have been reported in Arizona and Arkansas. Counterterrorism experts worry that many more events are going unreported.
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