Wednesday, June 11, 2014
Virginia Earthquake Rocks Washington
No matter which side you were on in Virginia’s Seventh Congressional District primary, last night’s defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, the number two House Republican, by conservative challenger David Brat was simply stunning. Newt Gingrich called it a “scale eight earthquake.”
Cantor’s aides were privately telling reporters a few days ago that he would easily win 60% of the vote. He got 44%. Cantor and groups supporting him spent $5 million. Brat spent about $200,000.
Two years ago, Cantor won his primary with 79% support. But last night he got nearly 8,500 fewer votes than he did two years ago. What happened to those people? Did they suddenly become radical Tea Pary activists? I doubt it. It is more likely that in the course of the past 24 months they came to the conclusion, fairly or not, that Eric Cantor has changed, that he was no longer the guy they had previously voted for.
Before discussing what this upset means, I want to make it clear that Eric Cantor was a strong conservative on many issues. He was solid on national defense. He was a staunch defender of America’s alliance with Israel. He was strongly pro-life. When the Tea Party movement burst onto the national scene in 2010, he was a vocal supporter of the movement and defended it against a hostile media. In fact, many of the national Tea Party organizations stayed out of this primary race.
Having said all that, in recent years Cantor seemed to be increasingly out of touch with the mood of conservative voters in his district. While national Tea Party organizations were not involved, local Virginia Tea Party groups were extremely active. There were tremors in the days leading up to the primary, such as a Cantor ally being defeated for a key GOP post in the district. Late polling showed Cantor’s support falling.
Lessons To Be Learned
So what lessons should the GOP learn from this stunning upset?
First, inoculate yourself against Potomac fever. It is imperative for every member of Congress to go the extra mile to be responsive to their constituents — especially Republicans who claim to be members of the anti-Washington party. When you run against Washington, you cannot be seen as a creature of Washington and, fairly or not, that seems to be how many Seventh District voters came to view Eric Cantor.
Second, the immigration issue — and particularly anything that smacks of amnesty — is toxic for the Republican Party. The American people are welcoming and tolerant. But they also want fairness for struggling workers and taxpayers. They want our borders to be secured. And they want our laws to be enforced and respected.
Pressure from the Chamber of Commerce and various business interests for some sort of quasi-amnesty or deal with Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi is pushing the party toward political suicide.
In recent months, Cantor took the lead in supporting legislation based on a principle many people of faith embrace — that we don’t hold children responsible for the bad actions of their parents. But as is so often the case, compassion and good intentions have contributed to a humanitarian catastrophe that is taking place right now along our southern border.
As word spread throughout Latin America that children would not be deported from the United States, tens of thousands of children began to cross the border. The fact that this crisis was making headlines in the final days of the primary, and that Cantor was suggesting he could work with Obama, probably cost him dearly.
But I think what really drove the results was the widespread feeling that the Republican establishment generally, and Cantor specifically, is too vested in Wall Street and K Street. David Brat ran a populist campaign. He strongly attacked crony capitalism — big business in bed with big government at the expense of the average American family.
The Republican Party should regularly attack crony capitalism. To me the lesson for 2014 and 2016 is that we have got to start speaking to the hopes and dreams of millions of struggling American families who overwhelmingly believe America is headed in the wrong direction but do not see a Republican Party that knows how to passionately and energetically fight for them.
By the way, when Brat talked about immigration, he talked about how amnesty would make it harder for struggling American workers to get jobs and better pay. He made the populist appeal against amnesty by speaking to the concerns of middle-class working families.
Who Is David Brat?
Those who suggest we could lose the district because Republicans nominated a “far-right candidate” are wrong. David Brat is not an extremist, he is an economist.
Brat earned a Masters in Divinity from Princeton Theological Seminary and a Ph.D. in Economics from American University. He is a staunch believer in free markets and ordered liberty under God. Much of his rhetoric sounds likes it is coming from our daily reports.
Was Brat’s platform some radical Tea Party manifesto? No. It was essentially the central planks adopted by the last three Republican National Conventions — no amnesty, smaller government, lower taxes and respect for traditional values. How shocking that the GOP platform might actually be popular with conservative voters!
One final point. I am growing weary of the conventional media analysis that looks at every one of these contests as “Republican versus Tea Party.” There is no political party called the Tea Party. The Tea Party is a movement made up of conservatives.
One analyst last night correctly said that the GOP doesn’t have a problem with the Tea Party. It has a problem with Republican voters who do not perceive their party as being sufficiently committed to conservative values.
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