Wednesday, March 2, 2016
To: Friends & Supporters
From: Gary L. Bauer
The Results
The Super Tuesday results are in, and it was a good night for the front-runners. Hillary Clinton won seven states last night: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.
Senator Sanders carried four states: Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma and Vermont.
On the GOP side, Donald Trump also carried seven states: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia.
Senator Ted Cruz won three states: Alaska, Oklahoma and Texas. Senator Rubio won one: Minnesota. Senator Cruz finished second in four states, while Senator Rubio finished second in two.
What’s Next
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be the Democrat nominee for president this November. Hillary Clinton has won more than twice as many delegates than Bernie Sanders — 1,034 to 408. The “Bern” has been controlled and is beginning to go out.
The Republican contest is more fluid. It was Donald Trump’s night last night, but his win was not as overwhelming as pundits had predicted 48 hours earlier. There were many suggestions that Trump might even carry Texas and shutout the other contenders. That did not happen.
Here’s RNC delegate count to date:
Trump 319
Cruz 226
Rubio 110
Kasich 25
Carson 8.
(Dr. Carson just announced that he would not participate in Thursday’s debate and does not see a way to the nomination.)
But because Cruz and Rubio both had successes last night, neither is likely to drop out. John Kasich will stay in through Ohio. All of which makes it more difficult for any candidate to overtake Trump in the upcoming winner-take-all states.
Erick Erickson, founder of RedState, suggested this morning that Cruz and Rubio need to go into a room somewhere and hammer out a unity ticket, and then compete together against Trump.
Bill Kristol on Morning Joe offered a different idea. He believes that the key battlegrounds coming up are Florida and Ohio. Kristol suggested that before the Florida vote, whoever is in third place should say to his supporters, “If you agree with me that Donald Trump can’t be the nominee, I urge you to vote for [whoever is in second place] to prevent Trump from taking all the delegates.”
Likewise in Ohio, Rubio and Cruz should urge their respective supporters to back John Kasich in order to deny Trump Ohio’s delegates. If Trump does not win either state, it is unlikely he will arrive at the Republican National Convention with the delegates he needs, and the nomination will be fought out on the convention floor.
Odds & Ends
- Voter turnout continues to be a major story. Records were smashed in a number of states last night on the GOP side, while Democrat turnout was below 2008 levels. According to the Washington Post,one million more voters have participated in Republican primaries than in Democrat primaries this year.
- Ted Cruz has carried three out of four states with closed primaries or caucuses (elections where only Republicans can vote). Trump has won nine out of eleven states with open primaries in which Democrats and independents can vote. Kansas, Kentucky and Louisiana vote this weekend and they are closed contests.
- Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump failed to deliver her home state of Alaska, which Ted Cruz won.
Clues From Kennedy
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments today in a case challenging a law regulating health and safety standards at Texas abortion clinics. More than 20 clinics have closed since the law took effect.
Pro-abortion advocates argued that the law created an “undue burden” on women seeking to exercise their “right” to destroy the life of an unborn baby. The court’s four liberals clearly embraced this attack.
Justice Anthony Kennedy, who previously voted against abortion restrictions that allegedly created “undue burdens,” appeared somewhat sympathetic to that challenge.
According to reports, Kennedy expressed concern about a “capacity problem” if only 10 abortion clinics remained open in Texas. How sad that he seems worried about an abortionist shortage. Kennedy suggested that the case be sent back to the lower courts so that the law’s impact could be more thoroughly examined. A decision is expected this summer.
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