Wednesday, April 6, 2016
To: Friends & Supporters
From: Gary L. Bauer
Wisconsin Results: The Democrats
Before yesterday’s voting began, Senator Bernie Sanders had a narrow lead in the polls — 48% to 45% for Hillary Clinton. Evidently, Wisconsin voters were feeling the Bern! Last night, Sanders won not by three points, but by 14 points — 57% to 43%.
Sanders clearly has what is called “the big Mo” — momentum. He has won six of the last seven Democrat primaries.
Wisconsin Results: The Republicans
It is possible that Wisconsin may be Donald Trump’s Waterloo. After all, he did lose Waterloo, Wisconsin. While Senator Cruz enjoyed a five-point lead in the polls ahead of the voting, he over-performed and won by 13 points, taking 48% of the vote. Donald Trump finished second with 35%. Ohio Governor John Kasich received 14%.
Turnout broke a record set in 1980, when a guy named Ronald Reagan (perhaps you’ve heard of him) was running.
Last night’s win was significant for Senator Ted Cruz, not only for the size of the win, but what it means for the chances of a contested convention in Cleveland.
For Donald Trump to prevail with a majority vote of the delegates on the first ballot, he would need to win at least 60% of the delegates in the remaining primaries. These states may favor Trump, but it will be difficult for him to reach the goal of 1,237 delegates.
Meanwhile, Cruz continues to do well in the delegate selection process, which is separate from the primary contests. (See our explanation below.)
By the way, it is a matter of Republican orthodoxy that trade deals create jobs. But according to exit polls, 54% of Republican voters believe that trade deals cost American jobs. Paul Ryan, call your office.
Here’s another interesting finding from the exit polls: 69% of Wisconsin’s GOP primary voters support a temporary moratorium on Muslim immigration.
Washington elites in both parties were mortified when that idea was first put on the table. Yet, the overwhelming support for this idea among Republican primary voters in Wisconsin is a significant marker of the incredible disconnect between those who govern us and the governed.
The Delegate Race
As you know, there is a lot of speculation about what might happen at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio. For example, there are rumors that the party establishment might try to nominate Speaker Paul Ryan.
The idea of nominating someone who did not even run in the primaries is absurd. Any attempt to steal the nomination from the top vote-getters could destroy the party. But there is something else being described by some as cheating, and it most definitely is not.
There is a parallel contest going on in the Republican presidential race that isn’t getting much attention. While the voters are casting ballots for their favorite candidates, party activists are gathering at state conventions and selecting the delegates who will go to Cleveland.
At the convention, the nominating process begins with a roll call of the states. The state party chairmen will announce the allocation of delegates based on the results of each state’s primary.
If no candidate secures a majority of the delegates based on that roll call vote, another vote is held and things can change dramatically. At this point, more than half of the delegates become “unbound” or free to vote for whomever they choose on this second ballot.
The Trump campaign hasn’t paid much attention to the delegate selection process, but the Cruz campaign has been intently focused on it. It has been reported that some state delegations bound to Donald Trump on the first ballot actually have a majority of delegates who support Ted Cruz. As a result, it is possible that Senator Cruz could win the nomination on a second or third ballot.
That is not cheating. Those are the rules. That has always been part of the process.
And The Award Goes To. . .
The bathroom battles are continuing in the Tar Heel State. Paypal announced yesterday that it was cancelling plans to open a new operations center in North Carolina, potentially costing the state 400 new jobs.
PayPal CEO Dan Schulman blasted North Carolina, saying, “The new law perpetuates discrimination and it violates the values and principles that are at the core of PayPal’s mission and culture.”
Really? When did allowing men into the ladies room become part of America’s corporate culture and values? Do the women working at PayPal want to share bathrooms with men? I doubt it.
As it turns out, gay rights really isn’t much of a priority for Mr. Schulman or PayPal. This is all about sanctimonious public relations and browbeating the vast majority of Americans into submission.
Reverend Franklin Graham pounced on Schulman’s statement, declaring PayPal to be the winner of the “Hypocrite of the Year Award.”
In a powerful statement, Rev. Graham, quoting Rep. Robert Pittenger (R-NC), noted that “PayPal does business in 25 countries where homosexual behavior is illegal, including 5 countries where the penalty is death. . .”
Graham continued, “Just last month PayPal announced they would be expanding into Cuba, a country in which homosexuals and transgender people are imprisoned, tortured and executed.”
Reverend Graham praised the courage and backbone of North Carolina’s elected leaders and called men and women of faith to pray for them. I join him in that call. After you are done praying, perhaps you might consider cancelling your PayPal account!
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