Memory is so important, yet so fragile. The most often repeated command in the Tanakh is to “remember!” Yet we are mere humans, and the memories captured in our minds tend to fade so easily.

On Monday, January 27th, I will have the privilege to address hundreds of Holocaust survivors at a remembrance gathering in Haifa to honor the memory of the six million Jews massacred in the Nazi genocide. The ceremony will be held at a unique “warm home” which is solely dedicated to caring for needy Holocaust survivors – the only one of its kind in Israel. There will be cabinet ministers and other dignitaries there as well. Sponsored by the International Christian Embassy Jerusalem with Yad Ezer L’Haver, the warm home is located in an older neighbourhood of upper Haifa, and although I have been there dozens of times, I still worry if I will remember how to get there through the winding hilly streets.

Capping off one of the wettest winters in decades, torrential rains have poured down on Israel all this week, bringing the Sea of Galilee to its highest level in years and also filling many small streams, ponds, tributaries and rivers all over the Holy Land. Coming as it does after years of near-drought conditions, the rains (and snow on Mount Hermon in the north) have been welcomed, but there has also been a price to pay in the form of several deaths and billions of shekels in property damage, including massive destruction in the coastal city of Nahariya.

Israel’s air force has been unrelenting in its determination to prevent the introduction by Iran into Syria of a massive supply of precision-guided missiles to be used against Israel. The IAF is also striking consistently and forcefully at Tehran’s attempts to establish a local Iranian-run weapons armament industry in Syria. With these efforts, Israel is forcing Iran to take these projects underground. That is an expensive proposition—and all the more difficult following the reimposition of US sanctions.

At the core of the strategic assessment for 2020 stands the tension between Israel’s evident strength and its success in various fields, and the possibility that this positive state of affairs will prove temporary and fragile. This tension stems from a series of factors that in the coming year could lead to a large-scale conflict and even to war, and involves Israel’s approach to a series of substantive national security challenges. The unequivocal conclusion from these developments is the need for Israel to formulate a new strategy.