Denison Forum
Dr. Jim Denison
Whom should we blame for the confusing state of American politics?
Christians.
But not for the reasons you might think.
Good news and bad news for the winners
Donald Trump won last night’s New Hampshire Republican primary. This is good news for his campaign in a variety of ways:
- In twelve of the last fourteen elections, the Republican who won the New Hampshire primary went on to become the party’s nominee.
- No Republican candidate has ever won the first two states and then lost the nomination.
- Though Nikki Haley vowed to stay in the race, Mr. Trump leads her nationally, 67 percent to 12 percent.
Does this mean his path to the nomination is secure?
Not exactly:
- He is facing legal battles that threaten his eligibility to run.
- In one poll, 45 percent of Republican respondents said they would not support him if he were convicted of a felony.
- He is one of only a handful of ex-presidents to run for the office again; only Grover Cleveland did so successfully.
On the other side, President Biden wasn’t on the printed ballot, but he still won the Democratic primary. He wanted South Carolina to hold the first primary, but New Hampshire refused to move its election, so Mr. Biden’s campaign chose not to participate. However, his supporters staged a write-in effort that secured his victory.
Does this mean Mr. Biden’s path to the nomination is secure?
Not exactly:
- Two-thirds of Democrat-leaning voters do not want him to be the party’s nominee.
- At eighty-one, he is the oldest person ever to hold the presidency, though Mr. Trump was the second-oldest. (On average, US presidents are fifty-five years old when sworn in.)
- He trails Mr. Trump in the latest polls, 47 percent to 42 percent.
And there’s this: at 43 percent, independents outnumber Republicans and Democrats (at 27 percent each) by a wider collective margin than ever before.