Denison Forum
Dr. Jim Denison
Israel launched three waves of attacks on Iran Saturday morning in retaliation for an Iranian attack on October 1.
The moment Israeli leaders chose was symbolic: the end of the festival of Simchat Torah, which on the Jewish calendar is the anniversary of October 7 last year. The Associated Press reported yesterday that the attack damaged facilities at a secretive military base linked to Tehran’s nuclear weapons program and another base tied to its ballistic missile program.
What comes next?
- A senior Israeli military official said the response was “designed to send a strong message while avoiding escalation in the near term.”
- Iran’s military signaled that Tehran would not retaliate immediately.
- However, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said today that his country “will use all available tools to deliver a definite and effective response to the Zionist regime.”
- Some analysts note that by damaging Iran’s air defenses and radar system, Israel has made it easier for its fighter jets to attack Iran in the future. This could deter Tehran from responding forcefully, leading to de-escalation in the conflict. Or it could embolden Israel to stage further attacks in the future, perhaps depending on the results of the American presidential election.
The return of “total war”
Mara Karlin is a Johns Hopkins professor and a former US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans, and Capabilities. In Foreign Affairs, she writes: “Today’s global security environment is the most complex since the end of the Cold War.” Her extensive analysis is titled, “The Return of Total War.”
She explains that in previous eras, wars were fought between groups of nations (the Allies against the Central Powers in World War I and against the Axis in World War II, for example). The Cold War continued bipolar conflict between the West and the Soviet Union and its satellites.
After 9/11, the focus shifted to non-state actors such as al Qaeda and ISIS.
Hamas’ October 7 massacre merged the two. Since then, Iran has been waging war on the Jewish state through non-state proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Then last spring, Iran attacked Israel directly, provoking a response by Israel on Iran. On October 1, Iran attacked Israel again; last Saturday, Israel responded.
An emerging nuclear axis against the West
Now we are witnessing the emergence of major power alliances that look eerily similar to those that waged previous world wars.
The US and its European allies have been assisting Israel with weapons and other materiel, and recently with US soldiers deployed as anti-missile system operators. On the other side: More Here
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