Dr. Jim Denison
Three stories are dominating the news this morning: yesterday’s Supreme Court hearing on transgender hormone regiments for adolescents, the continued fallout in South Korea over its president’s brief martial law declaration, and the fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare chief executive Brian Thompson yesterday morning outside a hotel in Midtown Manhattan.
Each, in its own way, illustrates the unpredictability of the future, whether in cultural, political, or personally tragic ways.
After psychologist Philip Tetlock evaluated several decades of predictions about political and economic events, he found that “the average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.” The recently-deceased Lance Morrow, one of my favorite journalists, said it this way: More Here